Manual transmission sales, after decades of decline, have experienced a slight but measurable resurgence. While the increase—approximately one percentage point—remains modest, it is significant in the context of the longstanding dominance of automatic transmissions. However, this shift is unlikely to herald a widespread return to manual gearboxes. Rather, it reflects a subtle change in consumer preferences at a time when automatics continue to offer unparalleled convenience, and electric vehicles, which do not utilize manual systems, see increasing adoption.
The history of manual transmissions began in 1894 when Emile Levassor and Louis-Rene Panhard developed the first manual gearbox, offering smoother and more efficient operation than earlier automatics. Despite requiring more effort from drivers, manual transmissions became commonplace due to their performance and appeal to driving enthusiasts. By the mid-20th century, however, automatics improved in reliability and convenience, prompting consumers to prefer them even at a premium cost. Since then, manual transmission sales have steadily fallen.
A report from CarMax, a leading U.S. vehicle retailer, reveals that manual transmissions accounted for 2.8% of sales in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022, up from 2.4% in 2020. This modest increase is impressive, considering the rise of electric vehicles and the fact that fewer new cars offer manual options. Interestingly, the manual transmission buyer base is younger and predominantly male, with the Honda Civic leading as the most popular manual car. The appeal of stick shifts is no longer strictly price-driven, as nostalgia and a connection to driving culture play a growing role.
CarMax highlights several factors influencing this trend, including parents purchasing manual cars to discourage distracted driving among teens and sports car enthusiasts seeking a more engaging driving experience. The company notes that manual gearboxes often appeal to customers looking for a “throwback” experience or a more visceral connection with their vehicles. This niche interest in manual transmissions aligns with a broader appreciation for classic driving experiences among enthusiasts.
Despite the slight uptick, manual transmissions are unlikely to replace automatics, as the majority of consumers prioritize convenience. Operating a manual gearbox requires both hands and feet, a workload most drivers prefer to avoid. However, a small but passionate market will continue to seek manual transmissions for the driving engagement they offer. Automakers are expected to meet this demand as long as regulations and emissions standards permit, keeping the manual transmission alive for enthusiasts.
