After 27 years of developing airliners, my journey into the world of electric aircraft began abruptly on a February afternoon in 2017.
I was asked to provide my thoughts on the eHang 184, a Chinese passenger drone theoretically capable of offering automated taxi services in Dubai. The resulting article included a statement that is likely to appear in my obituary:
“Dr. Wright added that he would not be volunteering for an early flight. ‘I’d have to be taken on board kicking and screaming.’”
This initial encounter with Chinese flying cars, or electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, set the tone for what has unfolded in subsequent years. China has taken significant strides with this emerging technology.
A major milestone occurred in April when the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) awarded a “production certificate” to EHang’s EH216-S, marking the first time an eVTOL received such approval globally.
This paves the way for a commercial rollout. Meanwhile, other Chinese firms are making their mark.
In March, AutoFlight’s CarryAll eVTOL earned a “type certificate” from the CAAC, a crucial step toward regulatory approval. Additionally, homegrown players like XPeng and Vertaxi are generating significant buzz in the industry.
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Currently, China accounts for approximately 50% of the world’s eVTOL models. The government has even pledged to create economic “demonstration zones,” though the specifics remain unclear.
China’s apparent lead in the eVTOL race raises two important questions: why is China ahead, and can it maintain this advantage? The answers lie in examining the two primary challenges faced by all competitors in the field—one technological, the other human.
The technological challenge is straightforward: while advancements in battery technology have ushered in the eVTOL era, batteries now represent the industry’s greatest limitation.
Despite progress, batteries still store and deliver only a fraction of the energy of gasoline. Until a breakthrough in battery technology occurs, eVTOL applications will remain confined to premium services and niche markets.
In essence, the industry’s future hinges on the next wave of battery innovations. The country or region that successfully rides this wave will gain a significant edge.
While China is well-positioned, the West’s longer history with conventional aircraft could allow it to reclaim the lead in this area.
The second challenge is more complex and concerns reliability—a critical factor for passenger aircraft. Although China dominates the consumer drone market, the gap between small-scale drones and conventional passenger aircraft is enormous.
How large is this gap? Roughly a factor of one million, and bridging it requires decades of experience in aviation safety and reliability.
Here, the West holds a clear advantage, thanks to its mature aviation industries and well-established regulatory bodies.
Can China overcome this “gap of six zeroes”? Likely, but it will take time. A relevant example is the Comac C919, an airliner strikingly similar to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 the most competitive segment of the airline market.
Despite its lengthy and challenging development, supported by significant state resources, the C919 has endured and is now entering passenger service.
In the eVTOL sector, new technologies are acting as a great equalizer. All players are grappling with novel challenges, which reduces the West’s traditional aviation advantage.
Furthermore, the West’s established practices can sometimes hinder progress, as the tendency to evaluate eVTOLs using criteria developed for helicopters or light aircraft may not fully capture their potential. This could provide China with additional opportunities to gain an edge.
The concept of flying cars is undeniably exciting, and I’m delighted to live in a world where such machines exist.
However, I do not see them as the future of mass personal air transport, except for a niche market slightly larger than that of today’s helicopters, primarily catering to the wealthy.
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The industry’s trajectory is likely to resemble existing budget air travel, with “sub-regional” airlines operating from large public spaces.
The experience may be less glamorous than imagined, involving price comparisons, queues, and baggage checks.
Lastly, the challenges of developing eVTOLs should not overshadow a related technological wave: unmanned aviation. This area aligns with China’s existing strengths.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the significant potential of unmanned systems, with deep-penetration strikes on both sides.
Repurposing passenger eVTOLs for cargo-only transport represents a promising niche for electric aviation. Personally, I’m more excited about the prospect of flying delivery trucks than flying taxis.