A few years ago, the concept of autonomous vehicles seemed poised to revolutionize transportation, with many industry leaders predicting that self-driving cars would soon be commonplace. In 2016, Ford’s then-CEO Mark Fields even announced plans to launch robotaxis by 2021, signaling that the era of human-driven cars was coming to an end. However, this vision has not materialized as expected. The development of autonomous vehicles has faced numerous challenges, including the complexity of replicating the cognitive abilities required for driving and the high costs associated with the technology. As a result, the timeline for fully autonomous vehicles has been delayed multiple times.
The technological obstacles surrounding autonomous vehicles became more apparent after a tragic incident in 2018, when a self-driving Uber vehicle struck and killed a pedestrian. This event highlighted the serious safety concerns involved in deploying autonomous systems. In response, companies in the industry recalibrated their expectations, delaying their timelines for self-driving cars. Automotive supplier Magna, for example, ended its partnership with Lyft to co-develop autonomous vehicles and shifted its focus toward improving Level 2 driver-assistance systems, which are already in use in many vehicles. These systems allow the car to perform tasks like steering, braking, and accelerating under human supervision.
Similarly, major car manufacturers like Nissan and GM have tempered their ambitions for fully autonomous vehicles. Nissan has acknowledged that self-driving cars are unlikely to be available before the end of the decade, while GM has not provided an updated timeline since its earlier promise to release an autonomous vehicle by 2019. Instead of pushing for full autonomy, Toyota has pursued a dual approach to autonomous driving. Its “Guardian” system focuses on accident prevention through driver-assistance technology, while its “Chauffeur” program remains dedicated to the development of fully autonomous cars. Toyota plans to integrate these advancements, ensuring that when self-driving technology is ready, it will build on the Level 2 features already in use.
One company, however, has remained steadfast in its pursuit of full autonomy: Mobileye. This autonomous-tech supplier continues to work toward launching a Level 4 ride-hailing service, which would allow vehicles to operate without human intervention in specific areas. Mobileye believes its experience in developing driver-assistance systems for major automakers, coupled with its extensive high-definition maps and advanced sensor technology, will help it achieve this goal. The company is also testing “true redundancy” by comparing the performance of vehicles using different sensors (such as cameras and lidar), ensuring that even if one sensor fails, the vehicle can still function safely.
While many companies have adjusted their timelines and refocused their efforts on more gradual advancements, the pursuit of autonomy is far from over. Uber, for example, is still planning for a future with self-driving vehicles, although its definition of autonomy may involve vehicles that operate with minimal human intervention on specific routes. The rush to deploy autonomous vehicles has given way to a more cautious and calculated approach, with companies focusing on long-term development and safety. As the industry matures, experts like Gill Pratt of Toyota emphasize the need for clear safety standards, asking critical questions about what constitutes “safe enough” for autonomous driving systems.
