The automotive industry’s rapid evolution serves as both a breeding ground for groundbreaking technology and a resting place for outdated equipment.
As we eagerly anticipate the arrival of truly autonomous vehicles equipped with advanced systems, other once-standard features are gradually fading from the scene.
One such feature is the manual gearbox, which is becoming increasingly rare across global markets.
This trend is not limited to North America, where automatic transmissions have long been the norm. According to data from JATO Dynamics, manual transmissions are falling out of favor worldwide.
Decline Across Europe
Europe provides a clear example of this shift. Back in 2000, 89 percent of all new cars registered across the continent came with manual transmissions.
In certain countries, such as Italy, France, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, and Portugal, that figure exceeded 95 percent. Exceptions to the rule were Norway and Switzerland, where around 25 percent of new cars had automatic transmissions.
This dominance of manual transmissions persisted for several years until various types of automatic gearboxes began to enter the market.
By 2017, the manual transmission rate had dropped to 78 percent of new cars sold, and the decline has only accelerated since then.
By 2022, just 34 percent of new cars were equipped with manuals, and data from the first half of this year shows the number has fallen further to 32 percent.
Several factors contribute to this change. Drivers increasingly recognize the convenience and ease of automatics, particularly in worsening city traffic.
Moreover, the price gap between manual and automatic transmissions has narrowed significantly. The rise of electric vehicles (EVs), spearheaded globally by Tesla, has also played a major role.
Unlike traditional internal combustion vehicles, EVs do not require multi-gear transmissions due to their torque-rich electric motors.
The Situation in North America
JATO Dynamics data reveals that in 2010, only 6 percent of new light-duty vehicles sold in the United States were equipped with a manual transmission.
This share fell to 4 percent in 2019, then dropped further to 2 percent in 2020.
Over the past two years, the manual gearbox has barely made a mark in the US market, with take rates sitting at just 1 percent. In the first half of 2023, this figure declined even further to 0.9 percent.
A Lifeline in Emerging Markets
Despite their dwindling presence in developed nations, manual transmissions remain a viable option for buyers in emerging economies.
Countries in regions like Latin America and South Africa still report significant sales of manual-equipped vehicles, accounting for over 30 percent of new registrations.
While the cost difference between manuals and automatics has significantly diminished over the past two decades, it remains a critical factor for low-income consumers in these markets.
What Lies Ahead?
Could the rise of affordable electric cars further impact the demand for manual transmissions?
The steep decline in manual-equipped vehicles in China, where budget-friendly EVs are rapidly gaining traction, offers a sobering perspective for enthusiasts of three-pedal driving.
As the automotive landscape continues to evolve, the future of manual gearboxes appears increasingly uncertain.
