The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed new emissions regulations aimed at accelerating the shift toward electric vehicles (EVs). According to the agency’s projections, by 2032, two-thirds of light-duty vehicle sales—such as cars, SUVs, and pickups—will be electric. Additionally, about half of medium-duty vehicles, including large pickups and school buses, are expected to be electric by this time. This bold move is seen as a major challenge for the auto industry, its workforce, and consumers not yet ready for EVs. However, the public is assured that gas-powered cars will continue to be available for decades, countering the fears of an immediate transition.
Continued Sales of Gas-Powered Cars
Despite the EPA’s projections for EV dominance, gas-powered vehicles will still make up a significant portion of vehicle sales. In fact, the EPA estimates that one out of every three new cars sold in 2032 will still run on gasoline. This translates to roughly 4.5 million gas-powered cars sold in the U.S. in that year, despite the rise of EVs. This means that gas vehicles will remain more popular in 2032 than sedans are today, a reassuring prospect for those who prefer traditional vehicles. Furthermore, with used car sales remaining robust, gas cars will continue to be a major part of the U.S. market long after the transition.
The future of gas-powered vehicles is not just tied to new car sales but also to the long lifespan of existing cars. In 2022, the U.S. saw 36.2 million used car sales, and the average age of cars on the road continues to increase, reaching 12 years in 2021. Even if the U.S. were to follow California’s lead and ban new gas car sales by 2035, it would still be decades before these cars disappear entirely. The average gas-powered car wouldn’t be junked until at least 2047, further extending the period during which traditional vehicles will remain in circulation.
The Electric Vehicle Transition: A Historical Comparison
The shift to electric vehicles mirrors the historical transition from horse-drawn carriages to motor vehicles in the early 20th century. This change occurred gradually over several decades, from 1900 to 1950, as automobiles evolved from a luxury item to the primary mode of transportation in the U.S. At the start, automobiles were expensive, unreliable, and impractical, yet over time, they became affordable and accessible to the masses. Similarly, the challenges faced by electric vehicles today—such as cost, reliability, and infrastructure—are problems that will likely be addressed over time as the EV market matures.
The transition to the automobile in the 20th century provides valuable lessons for the current EV shift. Early automobile pioneers dealt with challenges like fuel availability, standardization, and vehicle reliability—concerns that are analogous to the issues facing EVs today. These obstacles were eventually solved through innovation and collaboration. Larger issues, such as urban infrastructure and safety, only became prominent once cars were widespread. The EV transition is expected to follow a similar path: while there will be challenges along the way, the process will be gradual and manageable, with solutions emerging as the technology develops and becomes more integrated into society.
